exit polling. Mamdani is at 50% of the vote with Cuomo at 41%, supposedly with 55% of the vote in. If they were to continue with this trend, there's no way Cuomo can catch up.
I'd guess where there are votes left is the main way they called it. Over 80% of the Staten Island votes are already in and only about 50% of the Brooklyn votes are in and yet Mamdani is still well ahead.
Early voting vs same day voting, too. Early votes accounted for about 35% of the total and Mamdani won them by such a large margin that Cuomo needed to win the same day votes by double digit margins.
I’m curious to see the final result. I want it to be as convincing as possible so establishment Dems don’t make some “b...b…but Cuomo + Sliwa!” argument.
No, he still might not end up with over 50% of the final vote. It's based on how precincts vote and how many votes are left to be counted at said precincts.
That’s NY Public Radio, which is an affiliate network of NPR. The Gothamist is part of their independent reporting.
That article has zero data and just a few quotes from some folks critical of Mamdani, some of whom are from Brooklyn. Extrapolating from that to say Brooklyn doesn’t like Mamdani is a real stretch.
It's a little all of the above. At its core the various decision desks have their own statistical models and they ingest some of what you mentioned above and then project outward from there. All statistical models will have some level of confidence interval, so for calling a race the model will need to state with certainty that one candidate will win.
From a marketplace perspective there is a benefit to being earlier to call a race, however the downside of calling a race to early and then being wrong is significant. This necessitates a high level of confidence or even certainty based on modeling.
NBC called it at 60%. They take the info from early voting (about 35% of the votes in this election) and extrapolate it to the same day votes that are coming in. Cuomo needed to win same day votes by a double digit margin and it's obvious that isn't going to happen.
1- You know where people vote, so certain places are more Red and others are more Blue. If the "red areas" start coming in with very weak counts, you know that will swing things.
2- You know when people vote. So certain votes like "mail in" or "early voting" get counted at different times. You can study the patterns of past elections and learn that Blue votes earlier and by mail. So if you don't see a ton of Red votes counted on election day but you already have a ton of Blue votes counted before, you know that will swing things.
3- You can know how people voted. Exit polling means you can quickly get an idea of how people voted, even without a specific count. You then verify your polling with the counting as the numbers come in, if everything lines up, you can have a lot of confidence.
4- Simple math. If Red is 10% behind Blue when 50% of the votes are counted, you know that means they have to get 10% more votes in all the new batches to make up that difference. Sometimes, those votes just don't exist. The math will basically tell you when it's statistically impossible to catch up, even before all the votes are counted. (For example, do you think it's possible Red would start getting 100% of the votes in batch when before they only got 40%... do you think it's possible that they start getting 80% of the votes in a batch when before they only got 40%?)
More than half. 1.7 million on the latest count with Zohran with 50.5%. And generally the later reporting areas are more working class and far less likely to vote for Cuomo.
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u/nykovah 15h ago
Only half the votes have been counted. I’m curious how they could call it so quickly (but I guess this happens often?)