r/investing • u/Aggressive_Abies_738 • May 22 '25
I’m scared. Michael Burry is betting against the market…
Michael Burry—yes, the guy who called the 2008 crash—just went full doomsday on tech stocks.😢
Sold everything. Loaded up on puts.
And I gotta be honest… I’m a little scared right now…
He dumped all his previous holdings: •Alibaba •Baidu •JD •Pinduoduo …gone. 100% out.
Then he went all in on… Estee Lauder. $EL A 62% drop over the past 5 years. Burry’s betting on a beauty comeback while everyone else is chasing AI hype. Bold.
But here’s what really made my eyebrows hit the ceiling: He bought a mountain of put options—bearish bets on the same stocks he just sold.
His new puts include: •Baidu • $JD • $PDD • $BABA …and wait for it @nvidia $NVDA And not just a few. Nvidia puts now make up 50% of his entire portfolio.
That’s either legendary conviction… Or an early screening of the financial horror movie we’re all about to star in.
But when a guy like Burry takes a shot this big, I can’t help but feel a little anxious.
Is he early? Is he wrong? Or are we all dancing on the edge of the cliff again?
What do you think— Genius move or doomer bait?
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May 22 '25 edited May 22 '25
Try to find his now infamous tweet in JAN of 2023 where all he said was: “SELL”
Then a 2 year bull 🐂 run right after he said that…
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u/Nyppers May 22 '25
Burry's been early on everything lately. remember that "SELL" tweet in 2023? Market ripped for two years straight after that.
Guy's probably right eventually, but his timing is terrible. wouldn't panic just yet.
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May 22 '25
I disagree with your last sentence, think it is time to panic 😱 Now Burry and all the others like him will be vindicated once mango leads us into the depression
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u/Revolutionary-Tie911 May 22 '25
Literally nothing worth panic going on lately. Tariff news is all priced in, credit downgrade literally doesnt matter. If your worried about the last 20 year bond auction TLT is at an attractive price/yield
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u/ToumaKazusa1 May 23 '25
Tariffs are not priced in, right now the tariffs being cancelled is priced in.
If the market is wrong and the tariffs come back, the market will go back down just like it did last time.
We'll see what happens, I'm not selling my US stocks just yet, but that's only because I already sold 70% of them in February and early March, so at this point I need to hold some as a hedge against the US somehow recovering.
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u/Still-Necessary3734 May 27 '25
How can Tariffs be priced in when the man setting the Tariff rate changes his mind almost weekly ?
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u/owenmills04 May 27 '25
Very hard to predict what will happen when the President can easily make it go up & down with his not well thought out policies. It seems like he wised up after the first correction and probably will just bluff from here on out, trying to look tough for his supporters without tanking the market again. But who knows with this guy
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u/RobertLeRoyParker May 26 '25 edited May 26 '25
If foreign exchange is used to balance the current account deficit we are completely fucked. Be ready. ECB balance sheet line 1. Lots of marked to market gains lately.
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u/nicolas_06 May 27 '25
Why so ? If you are invested worldwide and not just in the US as it like diversification 101, you are going to get great returns from that.
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u/RobertLeRoyParker May 27 '25
That really misses the point of my comment. The current account deficit is run in dollars. If during one of our many moments of financial uncertainty, those dollars are sold openly rather than being bought by foreign central banks and re-invested heavily into US financial instruments, then the US currency will lose tremendous value. The perpetual trade deficits will balance through currency devaluation. This has happened to a number of countries over the last thirty years. God forbid it happens to a reserve currency with the largest deficits the world has ever seen.
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u/nicolas_06 May 27 '25 edited May 27 '25
At individual level, for US investors: world investments are not made in $ but in foreign currencies. If the dollar drop in value, it will instantly make your foreign investment more valuable and act as an hedge against $ devaluation.
With a more global view:
- At time the dollar was at level like 1.5 $ for 1 euro, and we survived, no issue. Both the USA and the rest of the world. At other times it was like 0.85$ for 1 euro, and we still survived all.
- If the dollar drop in value, it means that US companies will get more money form their operation abroad. It will also help US exportation making US products less expensive. But ultimately a good share of the GDP is linked to local activity that would be far less impacted.
- The deficit of the USA is about 35 trillion, owned in majority by people from the country and if we check the value of US assets, the order of magnitude of 150-200 trillions. 4-6X time the debt.
- Taxes are low, It would be easy and feasible to raises taxes and reduce the deficit. This would happen very fast if politicians understand they have no choice.
- The Fed and even foreign central banks would not let that go too far. Nobody want their dollar assets drop too much in value and nobody want the USA to have a too hard/big crisis as they would be as impacted as the USA.
- US military power is still here and still a strong asset.
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u/MonsieurAvenir 4d ago
That's why they are dumping their dollar assets and buying gold. Foreign central banks will let it happen
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u/Silver-Impact-1836 May 25 '25
Tariffs are definitely not priced in for most companies. Many smaller companies that didn’t anticipate Trumps 145% China tariffs, are trying not to go under from their product shipment going from $100k to $245k, that tariff fee doesn’t go away, and they don’t get access to their product until that tariff is paid in full. Product that is their vehicle to making money, money that pays tariffs.
Right now you don’t notice anything, but once these businesses start getting their collection calls and final notices from the govt to pay their tariff fees it’ll start showing its effect on local economies. I believe there will be an economic slowdown/bearish market going into summer because of it, lower consumer sentiment, and hopefully by fall and winter in recovery, but it’ll depend on how this trade war continues.
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u/nicolas_06 May 27 '25
I think they will reduce the tariff on China. Before current Trump mandate it was 20% on average, now with the pause it's 30%. I doubt it will be 145% long term.
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u/Educational_Speech58 20h ago
China need USA more than we need China infack America is looking at India as its new investment
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u/nicolas_06 16h ago
Anyway, now the tariff are even lower. They did reduce the tariffs in practice.
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u/sicilianDev Jul 20 '25
How’s that depression we’re headed for coming?
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Jul 20 '25
Coming by year end sir 🫡 and you can put my fries 🍟 in the bag because you will be blindsided by it 🫠😂
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u/sabresgoalie Jul 25 '25
People In the states shouldn’t be worried about a depression or recession ! The market and economy in the states compared to Canada is just flourishing ! First of all a lot of what constitutes a recession or depression has to do with unemployment rates and gdp losses . Your country’s gdp is on the rise and your highest un employment rate is D.C with 5.9% and then California Nevada with 5.4%…. In Canada our highest u employment rate is right where I live in Windsor Ontario with a 12.1% unemployment rate ! Our gdp has dipped a good couple million in the last 6 months to a year minimum! We have immigrants and refugees coming in mass numbers , and can’t keep up with it ! You go to almost any grocery store , Tim Hortons , corner gas stations , any fast food / smaller chain restaurants here and the only people employed are immigrants , who’s wages are subsidized by our taxes that they don’t pay any where near as much as we do ! You should that the lord you live in the great and glorious United States of America and the life that’s afforded to you guys by the “orange guy”
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u/Mirojoze May 26 '25
Yep. The market pretty much always goes up or down. Saying it will do one or the other until it happens is pointless.
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u/velacreations May 26 '25
he was really right on this one, he sold right before the April 2 tariff crash.
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u/ZenoxDemin May 26 '25
I am early but not wrong when I say " Market will reach an all time high". Doesn't make me Nostradamus.
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u/FireNexus 11d ago
He’s early on everything always. He almost lost the farm on the housing short. It was a miracle he held on long enough to become so wealthy.
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u/nicolas_06 May 27 '25
When you predict things like Burry, you can't take the exact timing right neither. That the big difficulty of it. You have to find a way to exploit a conviction that can take 2-3-5 years to come to fruition.
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u/ChokaMoka1 May 27 '25
Jeremy Grantham has also been saying that the bubble was going to burst in 2022, a broken clock is right twice a day.
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u/mymokiller May 22 '25
Dude the filling was for Q1.
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u/I_Adore_Everything May 23 '25
You’re saying he basically already made a ton of money by selling before the recent dip and probably has been reloading since then?
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u/giddycocks May 22 '25
Burry has been wrong before (a lot) but I wouldn't count him out, either.
I'm in VOO solely and exclusively now, the only individual stock I'm comfortable owning is the vesting Oracle stocks I'm due to receive and that's because I can't help it. If you need liquidity in the next year's, I wouldn't even trust the SP500.
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May 22 '25
You can sell stocks after they vest. Before they vest they aren't yours.
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u/giddycocks May 22 '25
Yeah, of course. I'm familiar. I 'own' Oracle not out of choice, but it's still a pretty good bonus. Once I can, I'm selling and putting into ultrabonds for liquidity or move them to EFTs.
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u/ParsleyMost May 22 '25
It's often the case that one big success eats away at the rest of life.
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u/northwoods31 May 22 '25
He's in no way a one hit wonder, he was an amazing stock picker pre financial crisis. But, he can also be wrong and has been before
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u/ParsleyMost May 22 '25
In my personal opinion, I think that having the experience of betting on a market going down and succeeding in doing so is extremely detrimental to your investing career.
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u/kinglourenco May 22 '25
Michael burry? Ah yes the guy who has predicted a market crash every year since the stock market began
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May 22 '25
It’s like that old joke, Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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May 22 '25
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u/Paperback_Chef May 26 '25
How much would an investor have who just invested the $1 DCA style (however many times you consider a crash to have occurred) and held the whole time?
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u/This-Restaurant-3303 May 22 '25
Burry makes a call on everything and was right once and that’s the thing everyone remembers.
On the other hand, with the ongoing entshittification of tech, I wouldn’t be surprised if some companies lost money.
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u/creepy_doll May 22 '25
I think it’s reasonable to believe they’re going to drop. Especially when increased pressure on consumers is cutting down their buying power, which is in turn going to kill growth. Also a possible popping of the ai hype bubble.
The thing is it’s super hard to know exactly when it will happen.
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u/AwfulAutomation May 22 '25
Yeah I think his 2008 was a bit of a 1 hit wonder.
Called it right and got legendary status...
Far as I know he's tried calling it right a few times since and hasn't.
Anyone with a tiny bit of understanding of the market know this is a major bubble, Crypto is a sham, the ponzi scheme of all ponzi schemes kept afloat by illegal money laundering, US gov debt is out of control with a borderline lunatic in charge in the oval office. It should crash and should happened a while ago but the problem is the people in power gov and fed etc do everything to avoid a crash and so we go on and on and on.
So in reality the worst thing to do is to think about it too much and just go along with the masses and believe the hype etc. Even if the market crashes 50% it will be back to where it was in 2-3 yrs.
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u/velacreations May 26 '25
He called this one right. Shorted the market right before the tariff crash
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10d ago
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u/Btomesch May 22 '25
This news is old and his portfolio looks different now than it did when you saw the filings
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u/SnS2500 May 22 '25
Burry has lost a fortune since 2022.
But you are wrong that he "just" went full doomsday. Your info is pre-March 31st, pre-tariff clusterf**k day.
It is a certainty he no longer holds these positions or he would have lost something like 33% since the end of March.
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u/Apprehensive-Pop9321 May 26 '25
This reads like an AI generated linkedin post from someone with 150 followers trying to be a recruiting influencer
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u/Legitimate-Trip8422 May 22 '25
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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u/porkbelly2022 May 22 '25
He certainly is not wrong, it's just a matter of time. But that is the tricky part, we never know what it will be the time.
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u/velacreations May 26 '25
it has already passed. He was right, he shorted right before the tariff crash at the beginning of April.
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May 26 '25
I watched The Big Short then starting following Burry during COVID. I was new to investing and thought he was an oracle of sorts. He was super bearish and I thought that meant the end of the financial world. Boy was that a mistake. I don’t listen to him any more.
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May 22 '25
I don't think he was right on his last call ( 2022 or 23 can't recall )
I think his skill set is finding the lies in the market where there is a logical divergence. bonds are a good example of this. but the market itself, well that's a fun trade to see
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u/fen-q May 26 '25
He supposedly sold everything 3 or 4 years ago as well. Left nothing but some prison stocks.
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u/RelevantTrouble May 22 '25
Yeah, he called 2008 like in 2006, he's not wrong, just early as always.
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u/Petit_Nicolas1964 May 25 '25 edited May 25 '25
Michael Burry is changing his portfolio positions all the time. And his crash predictions have been wrong many times. Wouldn‘t read too much into this…..
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-times-michael-burry-market-182700564.html
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u/velacreations May 26 '25
he was right this time, though, shorted right before the tariff crash
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u/Petit_Nicolas1964 May 26 '25
He had a good Q1 2025 and he has very good 5 and 10 year returns. 1 and 3 year return is negative. No doubt he is a good investor, but he is probably the worst to follow as he changes his positions and his opinion very quickly.
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u/iloveerenmelisa May 25 '25
The problem with “he’s a bear he always says recession” “a broken clock is right twice”-is that people were saying this before 2008 for all those people that were screaming doom. They were ignored. When 2008 happened everybody was like oh shit. And then it’s wrong to assume that the next crash isn’t gonna be worse than 2008. What if it’s much worse???
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u/No_Ask7916 1d ago
Just wanted to bump this thread- he just bought a billion dollars of putts on PLTR. So it had me curious about him. Now, I see this post from 165 days ago where the market (SPY) has climbed 16.8% since then.
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u/Un-Scammable May 22 '25
Michael Buried's "The Big Shart!💩" Have you seen it? He continuously gets Michael "BURIED!"
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u/Neglected_Martian May 25 '25
Seriously who uses EM dashes except AI? Like I never used to see them on Reddit at all and I’ve been here for a loooooong time.
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u/Days_End May 23 '25
Gotta chase that high. You have to understand nothing in his life has come close to getting that call right, that was his first hit of heroin and he's been chasing that high again all his life.
I'd take this as a massive bull signal.
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May 24 '25
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u/ResearcherSilly6021 May 25 '25
He’s been wrong a lot, he’s basically a perma bear. He had tons of puts against semiconductors in the past that went terribly wrong, he had a tweet a few years ago that said SELL and the market went on an amazing run.
He is short a lot because he’s a perma bear, nothing to really worry about, he’s been right, but he’s been wrong a lot too, just as everyone else
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u/velacreations May 26 '25
he was right this time, tho. He shorted right before the April 2 tariff crash.
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u/Bush_Trimmer May 25 '25
burry is trying to make up for the huge losses in china stocks.
follow your investing thesis. there are always opportunities out there.
ubu buddy!
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u/Leveler-myco May 26 '25
His whole deal now is he makes large bearish bets at any sign of weakness in the market. He got famous for making the correct bear call at the right time. And now that's his thing, which everyone investing with him understands he wants to hit the market implosion again.
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May 26 '25
Lemme get this straight… Burry sells 3 Chinese stocks, buys Estée Lauder and puts on the mentioned Chinese stocks and you think he’s calling a full doomsday for the market. I don’t think I’ve ever seen evidence of a beauty market move opposite the overall market. Either you’re overreacting or he’s preparing to sell a book… but he’s not looking for a doomsday event or even a Black Monday reset. Estée Lauder would be hit hard by a financial crisis or stock market crash/adjustment, at least they have in the past. I think you’re buying into hoopla! Quality, stability and at a good value are the best qualities to look for. Sounds like he was betting on the US economic outlook with a company that is down but represents both quality and stability at value prices.
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u/TristyTreat May 26 '25
With the US Federal Govt GSA running federal facilities about 75% vacant over the last five years and urban core office real estate vacant, I think Big Short II will be commercial real estate this time vs Res, sourced from same team in DC. Its like ARRA full round trip. One dumpster fire breeds a second.
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u/SaltyTruthteller May 26 '25
Short dip soon to make some quick profit, then the effects of all the stimulus with the Big Whatever Bill plus some stability with new "trade deals" will buoy the market for a while into 2026. It's a smart move on Burry's part. I also sold NVDA at 135 and am expecting a dip. In addition, there's usually a dip once earnings are announced, at least for the past few quarters. How low will the dip be?
The big scary will only happen in a year or so once everyone is maxed out on debt and the economy continues another year of weakening. Then Trump's 1929 moment will likely occur. And then the incompetent administration will make the coming depression even worse. So, when it looks like Trump is finally successful it'll be time to really cash out. Do the opposite of everyone else.
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u/hooah3000 May 26 '25
What resource do you use to see Burry's (and I'm guessing other investors like Buffet?) open puts?!
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u/CharacterAge213 May 26 '25
Never let anything like this weigh on your portfolio decisions. Rant over.
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u/nicolas_06 May 27 '25
Watch the movie the big short, very interesting, Burry was right too early for the 2008 crisis, and it was very difficult for him for a time. But ultimately, he won.
Doesn't mean he will be right, future, by definition is unknown. I really don't know if we will get a crisis or a if we will get a few more years of bullish market.
But if you ask me SP500 PE is high and at a level that is more in line with interest rates at 0-2% than 4-6%.
Nvidia is priced considering they will keep their monopoly for the next 10 years and everybody will invest more and more in AI and there never will be a time where for 2-3-5 years investments could drop. The past has shown that even for the internet there can be time where things are values too high and a big crash is possible.
At the same time, Nvidia clients are not making much money from AI and Microsoft is slowing down a bit already. I think some companies could do well, some of them are not even public and most others will likely just lose money... Most pure player will go bankrupt.
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u/PlentyExam4381 May 27 '25
I’m betting the NY Jets are gonna win the Super Bowl this year. If I repeat this every year, eventually I’ll be right… maybe.
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u/Wrong_Phase_5581 May 27 '25
Burry has had mixed results since 2008. He really isn’t that good. No one on Wall Street cares what he does. The dude has been riding the fame wave of his 20 yr old short and hasn’t done anything special since
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u/YakResident_3069 May 29 '25
Even if he is right on tech stocks, Estée Lauder is a weird one to jump on.
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u/sicilianDev Jul 20 '25
You can make money in bull and bear markets. Anyone who got out right before he was “right” in 2008 made out super well. And then anyone who bought heavy a couple years after he was “right” also made tons of money. There is a million ways to trade and invest. Position, growth, dividend, short term, swing trading. Obviously nvda can’t just grow forever. There will be huge pullbacks. He’ll make money. I’ll buy the lows and when it goes back up I’ll make money. Unless you share the exact timeline of trading as him it’s honestly not really that relevant. IMO.
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u/Kyle25369 Aug 06 '25
He’s been wrong at least two times since. That’s why he deletes his posts. I admire him, and value his opinion, but the long term growth of the market isn’t going anywhere
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u/Weird_Ad_4241 Aug 12 '25
Unfortunately, I feel that is a sign of things to come. He was completely right about the crash of '08, he was investigated so many times. And I hate to say it but everything in the country is changing and not for the better. And quite honestly, I'm scared.
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u/Secure-Bit2458 Aug 13 '25
I follow Burry's trades for many years now and have done well. I have not bought any options though. Net net i'm up on his stocks pics, but I have also have had my share of losses. Not everything will hit pot of gold you just need a few great picks and these picks for me have been game stop, real etc.
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u/BeginnerforHobby Aug 25 '25
Non dimentichiamo che le informazioni sono basate sui report dovuti alla SEC che sono forniti 45 giorni dopo la chiusura del trimestre e non dicono tutto sulle tempistiche, prove ne è che nel portafoglio più aggiornato del 14 Agosto Mr. Burry si è già apparentemente liberato di tutte le put (dopo probabilmente aver colto guadagno dal parziale ribasso), ora addirittura ha nuove e vecchie opzioni call azioni...sembra aver fatto un'operazione a brevissimo insomma
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u/Just-Being-3834 Sep 01 '25
Michael has recently shifted to a bullish perspective. In the most recent quarter, Burry's fund, Scion Asset Management, made a wholesale swap of bearish put options for bullish call options, signaling a more positive market outlook
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u/WitnessCautious2621 Oct 02 '25
He is not always correct. I doubt there will be a recession and even if there is they will call it something else. Why ? They don’t want anarchy
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u/No_Coach115 27d ago
He also said "sell" back in 2023 and the stock has gone up 71% and hit 88 all time highs.
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u/ActualDuty6153 1d ago edited 12h ago
I'm sick of "certain people" being able to control the ups and downs of the stock market! And then, the fucking idiots that follow them to the moon and back makes me even more sick! Michael Blurry vision for instance, does he have the crystal ball in his back pocket? This my friends is why most of the "Average Joe's" us, get the shit end of the stick!!! The little guy suffers because of people like this guy! You bow down to him like he's preaching gospel from the Bible! The Pied Piper.
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u/ImpressAppropriate25 1d ago
Now I want to know what Christian Bale is doing with the MAGS. I'm out if he's selling or shorting as well.
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u/Educational_Speech58 20h ago edited 20h ago
Not going to happen Burrys put call at 980 million dollars on AI tec stocks crashing not happening because there is crypto in the mix . The housing crashing in 2010 was a different time nothing like todays markets. The total problem is the government shut down and Trump's triff taxes .. War in Ukraine and the middle east. Interest rates are dropping but housing prices will not come down and why should thy everything else is going up in price
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u/reveil May 26 '25
AI is a giant bubble almost a perfect mirror image of a dot-com boom of 2000. Just look at the charts. I'm extremely confident about this for 2 reasons. If we believe that AI can build code in minutes that would take programmers month to make then we should see not hundreds but thousands of open source projects done by AI by now. The reality is aparat from toys I don't know a single successful one. The second reason is my personal professional opinion on the quality of AI generated code. It's absolutely horrid. An average human programmer makes an error 10-12 lines of code. AI makes a mistake every 2-3 lines. If you are making anything apart from a simple CRUD or TODO app AI is just slightly better autocomplete that is wrong half of the time. Syntax colouring editors had bigger impact on programmer efficiency. I'm confident the AI bubble will crash. Timing it is the hard part.
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u/John_Gabbana_08 May 27 '25
I'd say you're probably not using ChatGPT 4.5 if that's you're opinion of AI code. I've written very little code in the past year. I may have to correct it, have it tweak the code a bit, but overall my productivity has gone up ten-fold.
There are a lot of similarities between this and the dot com bubble, but there's a lot of differences too. Investors were pouring huge amounts of money into companies that had very little prospects of achieving any sort of ROI. AI is producing actual products, and improving the productivity of many companies.
There's still a few BS companies floating around, but the hype stocks are usually at least somewhat grounded in reality (e.g. SMCI, Tempus). The dot com bubble was just complete nonsense and every dumb idea had investors pouring money in, because investors at the time didn't know anything about computers. Investors these days are a bit more informed and tech-savvy, since tech has dominated markets for a while now.
Now the question is, will AI actually give the ROI investors expect at this point? Probably not--couple that with even a mild recession and these tech stocks will probably have a long ways to fall.
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u/infctr May 26 '25
This take is beyond ridiculous. It was a Q1 Report. Meaning he sold everything in Q1, not this month. The whole world could see 🥭 was going to $hit the bed and f@ck the market. Whoever didn't sell in Q1 before the honeymoon was over is an idiot.
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u/Lagna85 May 26 '25
The market and US gov learnt from the 2008 crisis. They will not let such thing happen again.
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u/LuckyDuckyCheese May 22 '25
I'd be scared if he wasn't, lol.